Mark Hunt’s Weather Assessment
25th January - 1st February 2011

For the 2nd week in a row we have high pressure in charge and up until mid-week it's been a little milder than of late with no frosts and night temperatures above 6°C. The reason for the stable weather pattern is another huge meander in the Jet Stream, but this time it's being held above us by the high pressure so we're under a peak and the trough is over the continent to our right, so that's where the cold air is going. At the bottom of the trough it reaches down to the tip of Africa so chilly for them for a change.

The high pressure is set to weaken from today and that will allow colder air into the continent, the UK and Ireland on the back of a Northerly and then Easterly wind. It'll feel bitterly cold with a return to ground frosts from Wednesday night, initially affecting the North of England and the North of Ireland, but extending South to affect all areas on Thursday night and into the weekend. The high pressure is due to re-establish early next week and deflect these cold winds, so temperatures will pick up again from Tuesday and we'll back into a similar pattern with milder temperatures and less or no night frosts coming into February. This push of milder air anticipated next week will extend into Scandinavia and Continental Europe and will prompt a continuation of the thaw that took place last week in Denmark and Sweden.

Not much sign of moisture around, some light showers in the South and North of England at present, but dry thereafter and the next wet front isn't predicted to arrive to Ireland until the middle or end of next week, but we'll see. Despite the fact that it'll feel well-parky, we should be thankful for this blocking event because it's stopping any repeat of the last two years heavy snowfall for the time-being.

Agronomically speaking, soil temperatures have been reasonably high of late, buoyed by milder nights and so areas are ticking along growth-wise, but that will stop from later today as frosts take hold. Over the weekend I worked in Cyprus and reflected on the fact that their soil temperature is currently 15°C and we won't see that over here consistently for another 4 months or so, ho hum. The milder night temperatures have initiated a mild upsurge in Fusarium activity with some new infections observed alongside existing patches, but hopefully if you've used the last week and a half of good spraying conditions, the plant is hardened up accordingly.


Mark Hunt
Technical Director
Headland Amenity Ltd

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